Likely helped
- No clear beneficiaries surfaced yet.
H.R. 10138 (119th)Bill Overview
To authorize sanctions relating to the production and distribution of illicit synthetic narcotics by the…
domestic policy
Current stageCommittee
Referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and in addition to the Committees on Financial Services, Oversight and Government Reform, and the Judiciary, for a period to be subse…
Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does
To authorize sanctions relating to the production and distribution of illicit synthetic narcotics by the People's Republic of China.
Why people may split
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Watch point
The next hurdle is converting committee movement into a floor coalition.
To authorize sanctions relating to the production and distribution of illicit synthetic narcotics by the People's Republic of China.
Passage38/100
This bill has moved beyond introduction, but committee and floor dynamics still determine whether it can build durable support.
CredibilityPartial
How solid the drafting looks.
Contention62/100
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
02 · What it does
Who stands to gain, and who may push back.
Likely benefits vs burdens0% / 100%
Likely helpedLikely burdened
These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.
Likely burdened
- No clear downsides surfaced yet.
03 · Why people split
Why the argument around this bill splits.
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Progressive—
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Centrist—
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Conservative—
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
04 · Can it pass?
The path through Congress.
Introduced
Reached or meaningfully advanced
Committee
Reached or meaningfully advanced
Floor
Still ahead
President
Still ahead
Law
Still ahead
Passage likelihood38/100
This bill has moved beyond introduction, but committee and floor dynamics still determine whether it can build durable support.
Why this could stall
- The next hurdle is converting committee movement into a floor coalition.
05 · Recent votes
Recent votes on the bill.
No vote history yet
The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.
06 · Go deeper
Go deeper than the headline read.
Included on this page
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
This bill has moved beyond introduction, but committee and floor dynamics still determine whether it can build durable support.
Unlocked analysis
Pro readers get the full perspective split, passage barriers, legislative design review, stakeholder impact map, and lens-based policy tradeoff analysis for To authorize sanctions relating to the production and distribu…
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Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
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