H.R. 3291 (119th)Bill Overview

Certainty for Our Energy Future Act

Taxation|Taxation
Cosponsors
Support
Republican
Introduced
May 8, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does

The bill ends federal clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar facilities whose construction begins after December 31, 2030, with those amendments effective January 1, 2026. It adopts the Notice 2013‑29 start‑of‑construction rules for determining beginning of construction.

Why people may split

Progressives emphasize climate and jobs harms from wind/solar credit termination

Watch point

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a focused substantive tax-policy change that is legally specific where it amends the Internal Revenue Code: it identifies precise sections to change, sets clear cutoff dates, incorporates an established construction-start regime, and defines the class of disqualified entities and countries.

The bill ends federal clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar facilities whose construction begins after December 31, 2030, with those amendments effective January 1, 2026.

It adopts the Notice 2013‑29 start‑of‑construction rules for determining beginning of construction.

The bill also denies a wide set of federal clean energy tax benefits to taxpayers that are "disqualified companies" connected to specified "countries of concern" (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea), requires Treasury guidance within 180 days, and applies that denial after guidance is issued.

Passage30/100

Significant, ideologically loaded changes to energy tax policy and beneficiary restrictions make passage uncertain without broad compromise.

CredibilityPartially aligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a focused substantive tax-policy change that is legally specific where it amends the Internal Revenue Code: it identifies precise sections to change, sets clear cutoff dates, incorporates an established construction-start regime, and defines the class of disqualified entities and countries. It also builds in an administrative step (Treasury guidance) for implementing the denial provision.

Contention72/100

Progressives emphasize climate and jobs harms from wind/solar credit termination

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Likely benefits vs burdens50% / 50%
Federal agenciesFederal agencies

These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.

Likely helped
  • Federal agenciesReduces federal tax expenditures for wind and solar after 2030 by terminating two major tax credits.
  • Potential benefitProvides a clear statutory end date for wind and solar credits, aiding multi-year planning for policymakers.
  • Potential benefitMay shift investment and incentives toward other eligible clean energy technologies and emerging technologies.
Likely burdened
  • Federal agenciesLikely reduces future wind and solar deployment after 2030 by removing significant federal tax incentives.
  • Potential burdenCould cause job losses in wind and solar construction, installation, and manufacturing sectors.
  • Potential burdenMay increase compliance costs as firms document ownership and control to avoid being disqualified.
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Progressives emphasize climate and jobs harms from wind/solar credit termination
Progressive10%

Likely views the bill negatively as a planned rollback of major incentives for wind and solar, risking slower emissions reductions and lost clean energy jobs.

The national‑security provision limiting benefits to certain foreign‑connected entities is understood but seen as insufficient mitigation for the larger subsidy eliminations.

Impacts on emissions, electricity prices, and jobs are plausible but somewhat speculative depending on market responses.

Likely resistant
Centrist50%

A mixed view: the bill provides a clear statutory deadline and addresses national‑security concerns, but it may create market uncertainty and undercut climate objectives.

A centrist would seek cost estimates, impact analyses, and clearer Treasury guidance before supporting it.

Split reaction
Conservative80%

Likely supportive because the bill curbs government subsidies for wind and solar and protects taxpayers by denying benefits to entities tied to adversary nations.

It aligns with preferences for smaller government intervention and guarding national security interests.

Leans supportive
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood30/100

Significant, ideologically loaded changes to energy tax policy and beneficiary restrictions make passage uncertain without broad compromise.

Scope and complexity
52%
Scopemoderate
52%
Complexitymedium
Why this could stall
  • No CBO or revenue estimate included
  • Political support and floor scheduling unknown
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Progressives emphasize climate and jobs harms from wind/solar credit termination

Significant, ideologically loaded changes to energy tax policy and beneficiary restrictions make passage uncertain without broad compromise.

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a focused substantive tax-policy change that is legally specific where it amends the Internal Revenue Code: it identifies precise sections to change, sets clear cu…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
Open full analysis