H.R. 4102 (119th)Bill Overview

RISE Act

Taxation|Taxation
Cosponsors
Support
Republican
Introduced
Jun 24, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does

This bill amends the Internal Revenue Code to cap the tax rate on "adjusted net capital gain" at 15 percent by changing section 1(h)(1). It removes a higher rate category and makes the 15 percent rate the applicable maximum for the portion of capital gains described.

Why people may split

Distributional impact: liberals see it as a wealthy tax cut; conservatives see it as pro-growth for all — a major disagreement.

Watch point

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a narrowly drafted substantive amendment that clearly states its core change and pinpoints the statutory language to be altered, but it lacks fiscal, transitional, and oversight detail that would normally accompany a significant tax-rate modification.

This bill amends the Internal Revenue Code to cap the tax rate on "adjusted net capital gain" at 15 percent by changing section 1(h)(1).

It removes a higher rate category and makes the 15 percent rate the applicable maximum for the portion of capital gains described.

The change applies to taxable years beginning after the date of enactment.

Passage30/100

On content alone this is a narrowly drafted but high-impact tax cut: administratively simple to write into law but politically and fiscally consequential. Because it creates an uncompensated reduction in federal revenue and centers on a politically charged tax preference, it will likely struggle to attract the bipartisan consensus typically required for major tax changes, lowering its standalone chances of enactment unless paired with offsets or included in a larger, politically feasible package.

CredibilityMisaligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a narrowly drafted substantive amendment that clearly states its core change and pinpoints the statutory language to be altered, but it lacks fiscal, transitional, and oversight detail that would normally accompany a significant tax-rate modification.

Contention70/100

Distributional impact: liberals see it as a wealthy tax cut; conservatives see it as pro-growth for all — a major disagreement.

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Likely benefits vs burdens50% / 50%
Federal agenciesFederal agencies

These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.

Likely helped
  • Potential benefitCould increase asset prices (stocks, private equity) as investors value higher after‑tax expected returns, potentially…
  • Federal agenciesLowers the maximum federal tax on long‑term capital gains, increasing after‑tax returns for savers and investors which…
  • Potential benefitMay stimulate transactional activity (realizations, IPOs, M&A, and investment in businesses) by reducing the tax penalt…
Likely burdened
  • Federal agenciesReduces federal tax revenue relative to current law (particularly from high‑income taxpayers who realize most capital g…
  • Potential burdenDisproportionately benefits higher‑income and wealthier households (who hold most taxable capital gains), reducing the…
  • Potential burdenMay conflict with other existing taxes (for example the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax under section 1411 would still a…
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Distributional impact: liberals see it as a wealthy tax cut; conservatives see it as pro-growth for all — a major disagreement.
Progressive15%

A liberal/left-leaning observer would view the bill as a tax cut for investors and wealth holders that reduces the top statutory rate on capital gains.

They would be concerned that the change primarily benefits high-income taxpayers and could worsen inequality and reduce revenue for programs they prioritize.

They would note the bill does not include offsets or provisions to protect low- and middle-income households.

Likely resistant
Centrist50%

A centrist/moderate would see the bill as a straightforward tax-rate reduction for capital gains that aims to spur investment, but would weigh that potential against fiscal responsibility and fairness.

They would likely want an independent revenue estimate and analysis of behavioral effects before taking a position.

They would be open to reform that improves growth but would prefer offsets, a targeted approach, or a sunset provision to limit long-term fiscal risk.

Split reaction
Conservative85%

A mainstream conservative would generally view the bill favorably as a pro-growth, pro-investment tax cut that lowers the maximum capital gains rate and reduces the tax burden on savers, investors, and entrepreneurs.

They would argue it could increase capital formation, incentivize entrepreneurship, and make U.S. tax policy more competitive internationally.

They would still be attentive to permanence and prefer the change be made permanent and paired with broader tax simplification.

Leans supportive
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood30/100

On content alone this is a narrowly drafted but high-impact tax cut: administratively simple to write into law but politically and fiscally consequential. Because it creates an uncompensated reduction in federal revenue and centers on a politically charged tax preference, it will likely struggle to attract the bipartisan consensus typically required for major tax changes, lowering its standalone chances of enactment unless paired with offsets or included in a larger, politically feasible package.

Scope and complexity
52%
Scopemoderate
24%
Complexitylow
Why this could stall
  • No score or estimate of the fiscal cost or distributional effects is included in the bill text; the magnitude of revenue loss is a crucial unknown affecting legislative support.
  • The level and durability of political support in each chamber (and among relevant committees/members) are not indicated by the text; this strongly affects real-world prospects.
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Distributional impact: liberals see it as a wealthy tax cut; conservatives see it as pro-growth for all — a major disagreement.

On content alone this is a narrowly drafted but high-impact tax cut: administratively simple to write into law but politically and fiscally…

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a narrowly drafted substantive amendment that clearly states its core change and pinpoints the statutory language to be altered, but it lacks fiscal, transitional,…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
Open full analysis