Likely helped
- No clear beneficiaries surfaced yet.
H.R. 476 (119th)Bill Overview
No Russian Tunnel to Crimea Act
International Affairs|Civil actions and liabilityConflicts and wars
Sponsor
Cosponsors
Support
Democratic
Introduced
Jan 16, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee
Referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and in addition to the Committee on the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consid…
Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does
<p><strong>No Russian Tunnel to Crimea Act</strong><br/> <br/>This bill requires the President to impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on foreign persons that knowingly participate in the construction, maintenance, or repair of a tunnel or bridge that connects the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula.<br/> <br/>The bill provides exceptions to these sanctions in certain circumstances (such as providing humanitarian assistance or to comply with international obligations). The President may also waive such sanctions on the basis of U.S. national security interests.</p>
Why people may split
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Watch point
The next hurdle is converting committee movement into a floor coalition.
<p><strong>No Russian Tunnel to Crimea Act</strong><br/> <br/>This bill requires the President to impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on foreign persons that knowingly participate in the construction, maintenance, or repair of a tunnel or bridge that connects the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula.<br/> <br/>The bill provides exceptions to these sanctions in certain circumstances (such as providing humanitarian assistance or to comply with international obligations).
The President may also waive such sanctions on the basis of U.S. national security interests.</p>
Passage38/100
This bill has moved beyond introduction, but committee and floor dynamics still determine whether it can build durable support.
CredibilityPartial
How solid the drafting looks.
Contention62/100
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
02 · What it does
Who stands to gain, and who may push back.
Likely benefits vs burdens0% / 100%
Likely helpedLikely burdened
These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.
Likely burdened
- No clear downsides surfaced yet.
03 · Why people split
Why the argument around this bill splits.
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Progressive—
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Centrist—
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
Conservative—
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
04 · Can it pass?
The path through Congress.
Introduced
Reached or meaningfully advanced
Committee
Reached or meaningfully advanced
Floor
Still ahead
President
Still ahead
Law
Still ahead
Passage likelihood38/100
This bill has moved beyond introduction, but committee and floor dynamics still determine whether it can build durable support.
Why this could stall
- The next hurdle is converting committee movement into a floor coalition.
05 · Recent votes
Recent votes on the bill.
No vote history yet
The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.
06 · Go deeper
Go deeper than the headline read.
Included on this page
The main political fault lines are not fully surfaced yet, so coalition durability is still unclear.
This bill has moved beyond introduction, but committee and floor dynamics still determine whether it can build durable support.
Unlocked analysis
Pro readers get the full perspective split, passage barriers, legislative design review, stakeholder impact map, and lens-based policy tradeoff analysis for No Russian Tunnel to Crimea Act.
Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.
Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
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