H.R. 5516 (119th)Bill Overview

No Coffee Tax Act

Foreign Trade and International Finance|Foreign Trade and International Finance
Sponsor
Cosponsors
Support
Democratic
Introduced
Sep 19, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does

The No Coffee Tax Act would freeze tariff rates on coffee products imported from countries to which the United States has extended normal trade relations (NTR) at the levels in effect on January 19, 2025. It covers coffee (including roasted and decaffeinated), coffee husks and skins, and coffee-containing substitutes, and bars any subsequent imposition of tariffs or duties above those frozen rates—even if other statutes or emergency authorities would otherwise allow higher, country-specific tariffs.

Why people may split

Whether removing emergency and country-specific tariff authority is acceptable: liberals and centrists emphasize consumer stability and predictability, while conservatives stress loss of leverage and national-security flexibility.

Watch point

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill clearly establishes a narrow substantive constraint on tariff authority for specified coffee products and uses explicit overriding language to limit other legal authorities, but it lacks supporting implementation, fiscal, and accountability detail.

The No Coffee Tax Act would freeze tariff rates on coffee products imported from countries to which the United States has extended normal trade relations (NTR) at the levels in effect on January 19, 2025.

It covers coffee (including roasted and decaffeinated), coffee husks and skins, and coffee-containing substitutes, and bars any subsequent imposition of tariffs or duties above those frozen rates—even if other statutes or emergency authorities would otherwise allow higher, country-specific tariffs.

Passage35/100

On content alone, the bill is a narrow, low-cost technical restraint on tariff increases for a single commodity, which increases its chance compared with sweeping trade reform. However, it constrains executive emergency tariff powers and contains no sunset or explicit compromises, which raises objections from stakeholders who value flexible trade remedies. Because of procedural hurdles in the Senate and potential opposition from trade-policy advocates, its standalone chances are modest unless it is attached to a larger, broadly negotiated vehicle.

CredibilityPartially aligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill clearly establishes a narrow substantive constraint on tariff authority for specified coffee products and uses explicit overriding language to limit other legal authorities, but it lacks supporting implementation, fiscal, and accountability detail.

Contention65/100

Whether removing emergency and country-specific tariff authority is acceptable: liberals and centrists emphasize consumer stability and predictability, while conservatives stress loss of leverage and national-security flexibility.

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Likely benefits vs burdens50% / 50%
Small businessesFederal agencies

These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.

Likely helped
  • Potential benefitPrevents increases in import costs for coffee importers, roasters, and retailers, which supporters could argue helps st…
  • Small businessesProvides price certainty for supply chains that rely on imported coffee, reducing short-term business planning risk for…
  • Potential benefitPreserves market access and predictable demand for coffee-exporting countries with normal trade relations, which suppor…
Likely burdened
  • Federal agenciesReduces the federal government's flexibility to use tariffs (including in emergency or country-specific contexts) as a…
  • Potential burdenMay foreclose imposition of remedial duties (or higher duties) in response to dumping, unfair trade practices, or retal…
  • Federal agenciesCould modestly lower future tariff revenue collected by U.S. Customs if tariffs would otherwise have been raised, with…
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Whether removing emergency and country-specific tariff authority is acceptable: liberals and centrists emphasize consumer stability and predictability, while conservatives stress loss of leverage and national-security f…
Progressive75%

A mainstream liberal/left-leaning observer would likely view this bill as broadly positive for consumers and for coffee-producing developing countries, since it prevents sudden tariff hikes that can raise retail prices and harm small farmers' market access.

They would also note the predictability it provides for supply chains and could see it as protecting working-class consumers from regressive price shocks.

However, they may be uneasy that the bill removes an enforcement tool that could be used in response to human-rights abuses, labor violations, or environmental harm in exporting countries.

Leans supportive
Centrist60%

A centrist/moderate would see the bill as a narrow, sector-specific measure that increases predictability for business and consumers by locking in tariff rates for coffee products.

They would appreciate the limited scope but worry that the blanket prohibition on raising tariffs—even under emergency authorities—removes flexibility needed for national security, trade remedy, or foreign-policy responses.

Overall a centrist would weigh predictability and consumer benefits against the loss of a flexible tool and want clarifications and safeguards.

Split reaction
Conservative30%

A mainstream conservative would likely object to this bill because it removes a tool of trade policy and executive discretion, tying the hands of the administration and Congress to respond to changing national-security, economic, or geopolitical circumstances.

While conservatives generally favor low tariffs, many also view the ability to vary tariffs as a form of leverage and enforcement; a permanent freeze could be seen as ceding that leverage.

Some conservatives who prioritize free trade and low import costs might view the freeze positively, but the loss of flexibility would be a major concern.

Likely resistant
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood35/100

On content alone, the bill is a narrow, low-cost technical restraint on tariff increases for a single commodity, which increases its chance compared with sweeping trade reform. However, it constrains executive emergency tariff powers and contains no sunset or explicit compromises, which raises objections from stakeholders who value flexible trade remedies. Because of procedural hurdles in the Senate and potential opposition from trade-policy advocates, its standalone chances are modest unless it is attached to a larger, broadly negotiated vehicle.

Scope and complexity
24%
Scopenarrow
24%
Complexitylow
Why this could stall
  • No cost estimate or Congressional Budget Office score is included; the fiscal impact (lost tariff revenue) is unknown and could affect support.
  • The bill's interaction with major trade-remedy statutes (e.g., statutes creating emergency tariff authorities) is stated as 'notwithstanding' but the practical legal and foreign-policy implications are unclear.
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Whether removing emergency and country-specific tariff authority is acceptable: liberals and centrists emphasize consumer stability and pre…

On content alone, the bill is a narrow, low-cost technical restraint on tariff increases for a single commodity, which increases its chance…

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill clearly establishes a narrow substantive constraint on tariff authority for specified coffee products and uses explicit overriding language to limit other legal autho…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
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