H.R. 9856 (119th)Bill Overview

Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act

domestic policy
Cosponsors
Support
Bipartisan
Introduced
Jul 22, 2026
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the House Committee on Agriculture.

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does

The bill amends the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit registered entities from listing, clearing, or trading any agreement, contract, or transaction that relates to sporting events or casino-style games. It defines "casino-style game" and "sporting event or athletic competition," includes a non-preemption clause preserving state laws, and makes the prohibition effective for contracts entered into on or after enactment.

Why people may split

Liberal emphasizes consumer protection and sports integrity benefits

Watch point

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a concrete statutory amendment that clearly accomplishes a narrow substantive objective (prohibiting listing/clearing/trading of contracts related to sporting events and casino-style games on registered entities) and integrates that change into the Commodity Exchange Act with definitions and a non-preemption clause.

The bill amends the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit registered entities from listing, clearing, or trading any agreement, contract, or transaction that relates to sporting events or casino-style games.

It defines "casino-style game" and "sporting event or athletic competition," includes a non-preemption clause preserving state laws, and makes the prohibition effective for contracts entered into on or after enactment.

Passage35/100

Legally narrow and administrable, but potential opposition from financial/tech stakeholders and higher Senate hurdles lower overall odds.

CredibilityPartially aligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a concrete statutory amendment that clearly accomplishes a narrow substantive objective (prohibiting listing/clearing/trading of contracts related to sporting events and casino-style games on registered entities) and integrates that change into the Commodity Exchange Act with definitions and a non-preemption clause. The bill relies on existing regulatory structures for implementation and enforcement but leaves broad interpretive terms and operational nuances unaddressed.

Contention55/100

Liberal emphasizes consumer protection and sports integrity benefits

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Likely benefits vs burdens50% / 50%
Federal agencies · StatesLikely burdened

These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.

Likely helped
  • Federal agenciesReduces availability of gambling-like products on federally registered exchanges and clearinghouses.
  • Federal agenciesSupports sports integrity by limiting federally cleared markets tied to athletic performance outcomes.
  • StatesPreserves state authority to regulate or prohibit these agreements under state law.
Likely burdened
  • Potential burdenRestricts development of regulated prediction markets used for forecasting and research applications.
  • Potential burdenMay push platforms and trading activity offshore or to unregistered venues, reducing U.S. oversight.
  • Potential burdenCould reduce jobs and revenue at exchanges, fintech firms, and market-making operations serving those markets.
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Liberal emphasizes consumer protection and sports integrity benefits
Progressive80%

Likely supportive because it imposes federal limits on gambling-like prediction markets and aims to protect consumers and sporting integrity.

May still seek safeguards for innocent forecasting uses and for marginalized communities that face gambling harms.

Leans supportive
Centrist60%

Generally sympathetic to consumer protection and integrity goals but cautious about regulatory scope and economic consequences.

Would favor clarifying language, limited exemptions, and an analysis of compliance costs before broad implementation.

Split reaction
Conservative25%

Likely opposed due to added federal restriction on market activity and potential regulatory overreach into exchanges and fintech.

Some social conservatives may welcome anti-gambling measures, but economic concerns dominate.

Likely resistant
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood35/100

Legally narrow and administrable, but potential opposition from financial/tech stakeholders and higher Senate hurdles lower overall odds.

Scope and complexity
24%
Scopenarrow
24%
Complexitylow
Why this could stall
  • Industry (exchanges/platforms) support or opposition
  • Views of major sports leagues and gambling regulators
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Liberal emphasizes consumer protection and sports integrity benefits

Legally narrow and administrable, but potential opposition from financial/tech stakeholders and higher Senate hurdles lower overall odds.

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a concrete statutory amendment that clearly accomplishes a narrow substantive objective (prohibiting listing/clearing/trading of contracts related to sporting even…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
Open full analysis