H. Res. 1263 (119th)Bill Overview

Amending the Rules of the House of Representatives to prohibit Members of the House from entering into certain agreements, contracts, or transactions with respect to prediction markets.

domestic policy
Cosponsors
Support
Republican
Introduced
May 7, 2026
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the Committee on Ethics, and in addition to the Committees on the Judiciary, and Oversight and Government Reform, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Spe…

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief

This resolution amends House Rule XXIII to bar Members, Delegates, the Resident Commissioner, officers, and employees of the House from entering agreements, contracts, swaps, or transactions that pay out based on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of a specific event tied to an “excluded commodity” as defined in 7 U.S.C. 1a.

The rule exempts ordinary insurance where the insured holds a lawful insurable interest.

The resolution also expresses the Sense of the House that the executive and judicial branches should adopt similar restrictions.

Passage45/100

As a narrow House-rule amendment it has a reasonable chance of adoption in the House; it does not require statutory enactment, but adoption depends on House priorities and any intra-Chamber objections.

CredibilityPartially aligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill clearly and directly amends House rules to prohibit covered persons from entering into certain event-contingent transactions, relying on an existing statutory term and providing a narrow exemption for insurance. It is explicit about what is disallowed but provides little procedural or enforcement detail.

Contention58/100

Liberals stress anti‑corruption and trust protections

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Who this appears to help vs burden50% / 50%
Targeted stakeholdersTargeted stakeholders
Likely helped
  • Targeted stakeholdersReduces the risk members profit from insider knowledge or influence over event outcomes.
  • Targeted stakeholdersLowers perceived conflicts of interest, potentially improving public trust in legislative integrity.
  • Targeted stakeholdersClarifies acceptable financial conduct for House personnel, aiding internal ethics enforcement.
Likely burdened
  • Targeted stakeholdersRestricts personal financial activity of covered individuals, limiting their investment choices.
  • Targeted stakeholdersCreates compliance and monitoring burdens for House ethics offices and staff administration.
  • Targeted stakeholdersAmbiguities in the statute's commodity and transaction definitions may cause legal uncertainty for covered persons.
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Liberals stress anti‑corruption and trust protections
Progressive90%

Likely supportive as an anti‑corruption and conflict‑of‑interest measure that reduces incentives to trade on official action.

Views the bright‑line prohibition as protecting democratic norms and public trust in representatives.

Leans supportive
Centrist65%

Probably cautiously supportive but concerned about drafting clarity and unintended consequences.

Sees value in preventing abuse, but wants precise definitions, narrow scope, and clear enforcement mechanisms.

Split reaction
Conservative40%

Wary or somewhat opposed: supports preventing corruption but worries about overreach, imprecise drafting, and curtailing lawful financial activity.

Prefers narrower, targeted rules or transparency instead of broad bans.

Split reaction
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood45/100

As a narrow House-rule amendment it has a reasonable chance of adoption in the House; it does not require statutory enactment, but adoption depends on House priorities and any intra-Chamber objections.

Scope and complexity
24%
Scopenarrow
24%
Complexitylow
Why this could stall
  • Priority assigned by House leadership and rules schedule
  • Whether statutory 'excluded commodity' language inadvertently sweeps broadly
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Liberals stress anti‑corruption and trust protections

As a narrow House-rule amendment it has a reasonable chance of adoption in the House; it does not require statutory enactment, but adoption…

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill clearly and directly amends House rules to prohibit covered persons from entering into certain event-contingent transactions, relying on an existing statutory term an…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
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