S. 1484 (119th)Bill Overview

FORECAST Act of 2025

Science, Technology, Communications|Science, Technology, Communications
Cosponsors
Support
Lean Democratic
Introduced
Apr 10, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief
Plain-English summaryWhat this bill actually does

The bill directs NOAA to strengthen subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting by funding research, multi-model ensemble systems, improved coupled data assimilation, and use of AI and unmanned systems. It requires a public Internet clearinghouse for S2S forecasts and links forecasts to impacts (storms, drought, sea ice, permafrost).

Why people may split

Liberals emphasize climate resilience and open data benefits

Watch point

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill establishes substantive statutory authorities to expand NOAA's S2S forecasting functions and creates a workforce development program, with explicit integrations into existing law and some funding authorizations.

The bill directs NOAA to strengthen subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting by funding research, multi-model ensemble systems, improved coupled data assimilation, and use of AI and unmanned systems.

It requires a public Internet clearinghouse for S2S forecasts and links forecasts to impacts (storms, drought, sea ice, permafrost).

It authorizes $28.5 million for FY2026 and FY2027 and additional unspecified funds for certain modeling activities.

Passage45/100

Content is technical and noncontroversial so passage is plausible, but reliance on additional appropriations and procedural factors reduce certainty.

CredibilityPartially aligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill establishes substantive statutory authorities to expand NOAA's S2S forecasting functions and creates a workforce development program, with explicit integrations into existing law and some funding authorizations. It provides clear objectives and assigns responsibilities, but leaves substantial technical, governance, and fiscal detail to subsequent agency implementation.

Contention55/100

Liberals emphasize climate resilience and open data benefits

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Likely benefits vs burdens50% / 50%
Likely helpedFederal agencies

These are examples from the analysis, not a ranked list of the most-affected groups.

Likely helped
  • Potential benefitImproved S2S forecasts could enhance disaster preparedness and reduce disaster response costs.
  • Potential benefitSupports workforce development through scholarships, fellowships, and hiring pathways for technical meteorology jobs.
  • Potential benefitInvestments in HPC, AI, and ensemble modeling accelerate operational forecasting capabilities and scientific innovation.
Likely burdened
  • Potential burdenAuthorizes open-ended "such sums as necessary" expenditures, creating potential budgetary uncertainty.
  • Potential burden$28.5 million limited authorization may be inadequate for large-scale operational and computing needs.
  • Federal agenciesExpanded federal forecasting activities could overlap or compete with existing private-sector forecasting services.
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Liberals emphasize climate resilience and open data benefits
Progressive95%

Overall supportive; views the bill as a targeted investment in climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and scientific capacity.

Appreciates emphasis on open forecasting, workforce development, and leveraging AI for public benefit.

Wants assurances on equitable access, sustained funding, and open data.

Leans supportive
Centrist75%

Generally favorable but pragmatic; supports better forecasts and workforce investment while seeking measurable outcomes, cost control, and interagency coordination.

Sees bipartisan gains from improved forecasting for agriculture, infrastructure, and emergency management.

Wants clear performance metrics and OMB/GAO oversight.

Leans supportive
Conservative40%

Cautiously skeptical; acknowledges benefits of improved weather warnings but worries about federal expansion, recurring costs, and bureaucratic growth.

Prefers limits on open-ended funding and stronger cost-benefit justification.

May support narrower, cost-capped provisions tied to clear outcomes.

Split reaction
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood45/100

Content is technical and noncontroversial so passage is plausible, but reliance on additional appropriations and procedural factors reduce certainty.

Scope and complexity
52%
Scopemoderate
52%
Complexitymedium
Why this could stall
  • No CBO cost estimate included
  • Extent of appropriations actually provided
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Liberals emphasize climate resilience and open data benefits

Content is technical and noncontroversial so passage is plausible, but reliance on additional appropriations and procedural factors reduce…

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill establishes substantive statutory authorities to expand NOAA's S2S forecasting functions and creates a workforce development program, with explicit integrations into…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
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