If you structure it as a Monty Hall equivalent, then yeah, you absolutely should swap: "you select a box, then the host opens the lowest prize. Do you swap with a random remaining box?" yes you do. And you can repeat that every round and you should swap every round.
Congress Member Profile|U.S. Representative|Republican|Oklahoma District 1
Kevin Hern
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Voting Record — 582
Yes76%
No21%
Present0%
Not Voting3%
Party align97%
Cross-party1%
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Congressional District 1
U.S. Census Bureau boundary data.
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Kevin Hern
U.S. RepresentativeRepublicanOklahoma District 1
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Kevin's ATmosphere Activity
20 recent posts · 17 sponsored · 30 cosponsored
Recent ATmosphere posts, sponsorships, and cosponsorships.
Right. If you structure the query in DOND terms it's: "You select a box, then open every box other than the grand prize and the bottom prize; should you swap?" I think it's hard to say "yes", because the structure of the problem has left you with the same 5050 opportunity
key difference is that Monty Hall only has the counterintuitive outcome _because the person opening the door has knowledge you don't have_. In DOND, swapping can never have any effect, because no-one has added any information to the mix
GREAT stat: one in six of all British prime ministers _ever_ will be at Remembrance Sunday this year. [assuming nothing bad happens] [pray 4 JMPM] diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2026/06/all-...
Cool storm
Yes but the counterpoint here is that the thread is also implicitly an explanation of why HDM is SO good, since it does the same shift and pulls it off
Oh you gotta read the Wayfairers books too then
…did you forget to pick up the kids cam
amazing
by my count I reckon politics started in around March 2014, gearing up for the locals, and hasn't stopped since
we must dream of a politics that _stops_
still chuckle at the former colleague who chirpily said, just after the 2016 local elections, "it's been nonstop politics since the independence referendum two years ago… mad to think that there's just the EU ref and the US election and then it'll basically be nothing until 2020"
well it still worked
just feel it's moderately useful to actually share banal AI wins here given the tone of conversation otherwise
One-shotted
Hi Jamie
Fucking hell I’d deliberately not been paying attention that’s mad
Is this your first time through?
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Voting History582 total votesExpandCollapse
Voting History
582 total votes
Recent roll calls with party-majority context so it is easier to scan how this member tends to vote.
| Date | Bill | Question | Position | Party Maj | Align? | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | S. 2503 (119th) | Fast-track passage | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-02-24 | H.R. 6329 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-12 | H.R. 2189 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | S. 1383 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | S. 1383 (119th) | Motion to Commit | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-02-11 | H.R. 261 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | H.R. 261 (119th) | Send back to committee | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-02-11 | H.J. Res. 72 (119th) | Final passage | NO | NO | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | H.R. 3617 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | H.R. 3617 (119th) | Send back to committee | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-02-11 | H. Res. 1057 (119th) | Approve resolution | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | H. Res. 1057 (119th) | End debate now | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-11 | H. Res. 1042 (119th) | Approve resolution | YES | YES | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-02-11 | H. Res. 1042 (119th) | End debate now | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-10 | H.R. 1531 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-09 | H.R. 6644 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-04 | H.J. Res. 142 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-04 | H.R. 4090 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-04 | H.R. 4090 (119th) | Send back to committee | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-02-03 | H.R. 7148 (119th) | Accept Senate changes | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-03 | H. Res. 1032 (119th) | Approve resolution | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-03 | H. Res. 1032 (119th) | End debate now | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-03 | H.R. 3123 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-02-02 | H.R. 980 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-22 | H. Con. Res. 68 (119th) | Approve resolution | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-22 | H.R. 6359 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-22 | H.R. 6359 (119th) | Send back to committee | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-22 | H.R. 7148 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-22 | H.R. 7148 (119th) | Approve amendment | YES | YES | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-22 | H.R. 7148 (119th) | Approve amendment | YES | YES | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-22 | H.R. 7147 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-22 | H. Res. 1014 (119th) | Approve resolution | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-22 | H. Res. 1014 (119th) | Approve amendment | YES | YES | ✓ | Agreed to |
| 2026-01-22 | H. Res. 1014 (119th) | End debate now | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-21 | H.J. Res. 140 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-21 | H.R. 6945 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-21 | H.R. 6945 (119th) | Send back to committee | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-21 | H. Res. 1009 (119th) | Approve resolution | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-21 | H. Res. 1009 (119th) | End debate now | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-21 | H.R. 5764 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-20 | H.R. 5763 (119th) | Fast-track passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-15 | H.R. 2988 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-15 | H.R. 2988 (119th) | Send back to committee | NO | NO | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-15 | H.R. 2988 (119th) | Approve amendment | YES | YES | ✓ | Agreed to |
| 2026-01-14 | H.R. 7006 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-14 | H.R. 7006 (119th) | Approve amendment | YES | YES | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-14 | H.R. 7006 (119th) | Approve amendment | YES | YES | ✓ | Failed |
| 2026-01-14 | H. Res. 992 (119th) | Approve resolution | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-14 | H. Res. 992 (119th) | End debate now | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
| 2026-01-13 | H.R. 4593 (119th) | Final passage | YES | YES | ✓ | Passed |
Alignment stats consider only votes where a clear yes/no majority existed for the legislator's party. Cross-party marks divergence where the vote matched the opposite party majority. ↔ indicates cross-party divergence.